“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘It’s different this time’ “
— Sir John Templeton
Before I comment on the dramatic and eventful first half of this year, let’s revisit the Four Pillars that guide our work together. Remember, these are more than just investment ideas — they are the timeless truths that help us make wise decisions no matter what the world throws at us.
Plan Wisely. We engineer thoughtful, personalized, lifetime financial plans designed to achieve your most cherished goals, secure your financial independence, and create a meaningful legacy for the people and institutions you love.
Invest Intelligently. We invest primarily in equities — the one asset class that has consistently and overwhelmingly outpaced inflation over time.
Diversify Broadly. We construct low-cost, tax-efficient, globally diversified portfolios representing every major asset class to eliminate the risks tied to a single company, sector, style, or country.
Ignore the Noise. We never try to predict the economy or time the market. Instead, we simply embrace frequent and significant — but always temporary — declines in our portfolio values as perfectly normal, necessary drivers of long-term equity premiums.
Now, on to the headlines — and there were plenty …
During the first six months of 2025, we saw President Trump return triumphantly to the White House for a second term; a private moon landing from Intuitive Machines; global markets rattled following “Liberation Day”; ongoing wars in Ukraine, India, and the Middle East; Hurricane Erick hitting the coast of Oaxaca; China’s release of the DeepSeek AI chatbot; and the U.S. military dropping 14 “bunker buster” bombs on Iran as part of Operation Midnight Hammer.
But if you had checked the level of the S&P 500 on January 2nd, and then again on June 30th, you would be forgiven for thinking not much had happened so far in 2025. After all, a six-month return of about 6% is just about what we’d expect in any given year — and a good reminder that markets often move forward even when the world seems like it’s spinning sideways.
The real story this year, however, is global diversification. After several years of underperformance, international stocks have roared back — with gains as much as 20%. Our patience, discipline, and commitment to our sound strategy are currently being handsomely rewarded. This is why we stay diversified. This is why we stick with the Plan.
Looking back a bit further, we see the 21st century has thrown just about everything at us: the dot-com bust in 2000, the global financial crisis in 2008-2009, the European debt crisis in 2011, the Christmas Eve massacre of 2018, the COVID pandemic in 2020, runaway inflation in 2022-2023 — and now 2025’s tariff typhoon. Although each crisis was unique, each ended exactly the same way: markets recovered, patient, disciplined, long-term investors were rewarded, and those who panicked were saddled with a lifetime of painful regret.
The moral of the story? It’s NEVER different this time!
On behalf of the entire DEM team, thank you for the pleasure of serving as your family’s Trusted Advisor. We wish you all a very safe, joyful, and relaxing Independence Day weekend.
